Induction as conditional probability judgment
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Induction as conditional probability judgment.
Existing research on category-based induction has primarily focused on reasoning about blank properties, or predicates that are designed to elicit little prior knowledge. Here, we address reasoning about nonblank properties. We introduce a model of conditional probability that assumes that the conclusion prior probability is revised to the extent warranted by the evidence in the premise. The de...
متن کاملA model of conditional probability judgment
A standard view in cognitive psychology is that people estimate probabilities using heuristics that do not follow probability theory. We describe a model of probability estimation where people do follow probability theory in estimation, but are subject to random error or noise. This model predicts that people’s conditional probability estimates will agree closely with probability theory for cer...
متن کاملDo Evaluation Frames Improve the Quality of Conditional Probability Judgment?
In evaluation frames, both focal and alternative hypotheses are explicit in queries about an event’s probability. We investigated whether evaluation frames improved the accuracy and coherence of conditional probability judgments when compared to economy frames in which only the focal hypothesis was explicit. Participants were presented with contingency information regarding the relation between...
متن کاملExtrapolating human probability judgment
We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements ab...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Memory & Cognition
سال: 2007
ISSN: 0090-502X,1532-5946
DOI: 10.3758/bf03193607